Obed Itani Chilume Stadium · Referee A. Mahamat · Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Namibia vs Malawi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Namibia and 1.05 for Malawi, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Namibia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Namibia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malawi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Namibia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Namibia and 1.05 for Malawi, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–012.1%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Namibia
- 2026-03-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazakhstan · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia · 0-3 (L)
Malawi
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs South Sudan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Botswana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zambia U23 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification Africa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ethiopia | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 6 | Djibouti | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -28 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 24 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Sudan | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Togo | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 5 | Mauritania | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 6 | South Sudan | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -16 | 5 |
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Benin | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rwanda | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 1 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Libya | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Angola | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Mauritius | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 6 | Eswatini | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 1 | Morocco | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 24 |
| 2 | Niger | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 4 | Zambia | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Congo | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
| 6 | Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 26 |
| 2 | Gabon | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Gambia | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Kenya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Burundi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Seychelles | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -51 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeria | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Uganda | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 4 | Guinea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Botswana | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | Somalia | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 1 |
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Namibia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Liberia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Malawi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Equatorial Guinea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 6 | Sao Tome and Principe | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -21 | 3 |
| 1 | Ghana | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Madagascar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Mali | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Comoros | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 5 | Central African Republic | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 6 | Chad | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Gabon | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Cameroon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Nigeria | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Burkina Faso | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Niger | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Madagascar | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Uganda | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Namibia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.