Namyangju vs Sejong SA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Namyangju and 1.20 for Sejong SA, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Namyangju the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Namyangju win

59.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Namyangju home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sejong SA away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Namyangju to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Namyangju and 1.20 for Sejong SA, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Namyangju win60%

Draw20%

Sejong SA win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.9%
2–08.1%
1–07.4%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Namyangju

2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Jinju Citizen · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 1-0 (W)

Sejong SA

2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-23T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 4-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K4 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jinju Citizen	22	16	3	3	33	51
2	Jincheon	22	12	6	4	22	42
3	Namyangju	23	11	6	6	3	39
4	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	22	11	4	7	13	37
5	Geumsan Insam	22	9	8	5	10	35
6	Geoje Citizen	21	10	4	7	11	34
7	Jecheon Citizen	22	8	7	7	-3	31
8	Pyeongchang United	22	9	3	10	-3	30
9	Sejong SA	22	9	2	11	-14	29
10	Gijang United	22	8	2	12	-12	26
11	Haman	22	6	2	14	-15	20
12	Pyeongtaek Citizen	22	3	5	14	-21	14
13	Seosan Pioneer	22	4	2	16	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Namyangju win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.