· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Nancy vs Dijon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nancy and 1.22 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Nancy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nancy home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dijon away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nancy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Nancy and 1.22 for Dijon, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Nancy
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunkerque · 2-0 (W)
Dijon
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Laval · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boulogne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.