· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Nantwich Town vs Chester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Nantwich Town and 1.45 for Chester, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Nantwich Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nantwich Town home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chester away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nantwich Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Nantwich Town and 1.45 for Chester, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Nantwich Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wellingborough Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wythenshawe Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avro · 0-4 (L)
Chester
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.