Bluewater Stadium · Analysis updated 07:41 UTC
Napier City Rovers vs Petone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.96 expected goals for Napier City Rovers and 1.46 for Petone, a combined total of 4.42. That distribution gives Napier City Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Napier City Rovers win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
2.96 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napier City Rovers home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Petone away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napier City Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.96 goals for Napier City Rovers and 1.46 for Petone, a combined 4.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.6%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Napier City Rovers
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibiscus Coast · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Petone · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 0-1 (L)
Petone
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Napier City Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-24T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Island Bay United · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Upper Hutt City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 45 |
| 2 | Miramar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Western Suburbs | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 34 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Napier City Rovers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Petone | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -41 | 16 |
| 8 | Upper Hutt City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -30 | 14 |
| 9 | Island Bay United | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -34 | 13 |
| 10 | North Wellington | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -40 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Napier City Rovers win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.