· Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Napoli U19 vs Spezia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Napoli U19 and 1.36 for Spezia U19, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Napoli U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Napoli U19 win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli U19 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spezia U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Napoli U19 and 1.36 for Spezia U19, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.3%
Recent form
Napoli U19
- 2025-12-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabağ U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PSV U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP U19 · 1-1 (D)
Spezia U19
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monopoli U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Palermo U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Sampdoria U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| 3 | Vicenza U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Cremonese U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | Venezia U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Monopoli U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Udinese U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Pescara U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Padova U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Avellino U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Lecco U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Latina U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Cittadella U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Brescia U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Mantova U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Spezia U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Modena U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Frosinone U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Ascoli U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 15 | Sudtirol U19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Reggiana U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Napoli U19 win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.