· Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
Napoli vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Napoli and 2.15 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Aris Thessalonikis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris Thessalonikis win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aris Thessalonikis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Napoli and 2.15 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Napoli
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 3-0 (W)
Aris Thessalonikis
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · Napoli 6-2 Aris Thessalonikis (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris Thessalonikis win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.