Maradona Stadium · Referee Ermanno Feliciani, Italy · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Napoli and 0.97 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Napoli win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 46.5% vs market 38.0%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 38.0% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.7% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 17.9% | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.7% | 82.2% | 1.22 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.3% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Napoli
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 2-3 (L)
Frosinone
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · Napoli 3-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2024-04-14T10:30:00.000Z · Napoli 2-2 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2023-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Napoli 0-4 Frosinone (Coppa Italia)
- 2023-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Napoli 3-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2019-04-28T10:30:00.000Z · Napoli 2-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2018-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · Napoli 4-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2016-05-14T18:45:00.000Z · Napoli 4-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2016-01-10T14:00:00.000Z · Napoli 5-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Napoli win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.