Napoli vs Juventus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Napoli and 1.16 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Napoli or Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Napoli win39%

Draw27%

Juventus win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.2%
0–110.1%
0–08.7%
2–18.3%

Why the model likes this

Napoli home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juventus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Napoli and 1.16 for Juventus, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Napoli

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)

Juventus

2026-08-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Palermo · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.