· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Napoli vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Napoli and 1.75 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Osasuna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Osasuna win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osasuna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osasuna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 24% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Napoli and 1.75 for Osasuna, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Napoli
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-1 (L)
Osasuna
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · Napoli 2-1 Osasuna (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Osasuna win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.