Naprzód vs Hetman Zamosc Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Naprzód and 1.78 for Hetman Zamosc, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Hetman Zamosc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Naprzód home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hetman Zamosc away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hetman Zamosc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Naprzód and 1.78 for Hetman Zamosc, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Naprzód win38%

Draw22%

Hetman Zamosc win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
1–28.2%
2–18.0%
2–27.1%
0–15.4%

Recent form

Naprzód

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Busko-Zdroj · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Czarni Połaniec · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 2-2 (D)

Hetman Zamosc

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Kraków II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Naprzód · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moravia Morawica · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Naprzód 4-2 Hetman Zamosc (III Liga - Group 4)

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	9	3	0	14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	6	5	1	12	23
3	Naprzód	12	7	2	3	7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	7	2	3	3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	6	2	4	7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	6	2	4	1	20
7	Jarosław	12	5	2	5	6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	4	4	4	-2	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	-5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	2	2	8	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.