· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Nardò vs Fidelis Andria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Nardò and 1.48 for Fidelis Andria, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Fidelis Andria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fidelis Andria win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nardò home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fidelis Andria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–08.4%
Recent form
Nardò
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brindisi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gravina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Palmese · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Martina Franca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ischia · 2-1 (W)
Fidelis Andria
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nardò · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Francavilla · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Normanna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bisceglie · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Forio 2014 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 3-2 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Nardò 0-0 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-02-16T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 0-1 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Nardò 0-2 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · Nardò 1-6 Fidelis Andria (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2024-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 1-0 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2024-01-07T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 1-0 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2023-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 0-3 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2019-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Nardò 1-0 Fidelis Andria (Serie D - Girone H)
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fidelis Andria win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.