Nardo vs Molde II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.91 expected goals for Nardo and 2.33 for Molde II, a combined total of 6.24. That distribution gives Nardo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nardo win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.91 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nardo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Molde II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nardo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 14% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.91 goals for Nardo and 2.33 for Molde II, a combined 6.24 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nardo win66%

Draw14%

Molde II win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals93%

Over 3.5 goals85%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

3–25.3%
4–25.2%
3–14.5%
4–14.4%
3–34.1%

Recent form

Nardo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strindheim · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NTNUI · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 5-2 (W)

Molde II

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Strindheim · 0-10 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs NTNUI · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spjelkavik · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	25	17	4	4	43	55
2	Volda	25	17	4	4	41	55
3	Melhus	25	12	6	7	26	42
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	25	10	3	12	13	33
8	Herd	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	8	5	12	-11	29
10	NTNUI	25	7	8	10	-16	29
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	25	6	5	14	-29	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nardo win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.