Narva U21 vs Legion Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.32 expected goals for Narva U21 and 0.63 for Legion, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Narva U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Narva U21 win

87.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.32 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Narva U21 home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Legion away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Narva U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.32 goals for Narva U21 and 0.63 for Legion, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Narva U21 win88%

Draw9%

Legion win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

13%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

3–011.8%
2–010.6%
4–09.8%
3–17.4%
2–16.7%

Recent form

Narva U21

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 1-0 (W)

Legion

2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Johvi Phoenix · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Luunja · 0-11 (L)
2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Luunja	34	18	5	11	26	59
4	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	34	8	6	20	-18	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Narva U21 win, at 87.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.