Markaziy Stadium · Referee A. Khudoyberganov · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Nasaf vs Bunyodkor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nasaf and 1.05 for Bunyodkor, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Nasaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nasaf home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bunyodkor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nasaf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Nasaf and 1.05 for Bunyodkor, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Nasaf
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)
Bunyodkor
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -33 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.