Markaziy Stadium · Referee A. Risqullaev · Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Nasaf vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Nasaf and 1.13 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Nasaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nasaf win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nasaf home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Samarqand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Nasaf
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)
Dinamo Samarqand
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-12T15:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 1-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-11-29T10:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 0-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-07-06T15:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 2-2 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-10-28T13:15:00.000Z · Nasaf 2-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 1-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-04-21T11:30:00.000Z · Nasaf 3-3 Dinamo Samarqand (Cup)
- 2023-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 2-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Cup)
- 2022-11-03T13:30:00.000Z · Nasaf 1-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-08-07T14:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 4-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2019-11-30T10:00:00.000Z · Nasaf 1-2 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Nasaf | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 41 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Olmaliq | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 33 |
| 9 | Andijan | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nasaf win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.