Markaziy Stadium · Referee A. Nazhafaliev · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Nasaf vs Pakhtakor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Nasaf and 0.95 for Pakhtakor, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Pakhtakor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nasaf home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pakhtakor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 33% / 32% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Nasaf and 0.95 for Pakhtakor, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.7%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Nasaf
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)
Pakhtakor
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Samarqand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -33 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.