Nasaf vs Sogdiana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Nasaf and 1.18 for Sogdiana, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Nasaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nasaf win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nasaf home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sogdiana away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nasaf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Nasaf and 1.18 for Sogdiana, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nasaf win56%

Draw22%

Sogdiana win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.8%
1–08.5%
2–08.4%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Nasaf

2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)

Sogdiana

2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Andijan · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	24	17	4	3	35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	15	8	1	21	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Buxoro	24	12	4	8	5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
7	Nasaf	24	10	8	6	13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	8	5	11	-6	29
12	Surkhon	24	7	7	10	-9	28
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nasaf win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.