Geodis Park · Referee Victor Rivas, USA · Analysis updated 06:48 UTC
Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Nashville SC and 0.93 for Columbus Crew, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Nashville SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nashville SC win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nashville SC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Columbus Crew away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nashville SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Nashville SC and 0.93 for Columbus Crew, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 50.3% vs market 44.3%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 42.8% | 44.0% | 2.27 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.6% | 23.8% | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.9% | 56.0% | 1.79 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.9% | 79.8% | 1.25 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.5% | 20.2% | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nashville SC
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-0 (W)
Columbus Crew
- 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cincinnati · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 13 | San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nashville SC win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.