Geodis Park · Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Nashville SC and 0.83 for Sporting Kansas City, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Nashville SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nashville SC win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Sporting Kansas City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nashville SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Nashville SC and 0.83 for Sporting Kansas City, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-01-30T18:00:00.000Z · Nashville SC 2-1 Sporting Kansas City (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 3-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-06-19T22:00:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-04-10T00:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 2-1 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2020-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.