Geodis Park · Referee Ramy Touchan · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Nashville SC and 0.88 for Toronto FC, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Nashville SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nashville SC win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nashville SC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toronto FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 49.0% vs market 43.0%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.2% | 84.9% | 1.18 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.1% | 20.2% | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 64.7% | 64.7% | 1.55 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.1% | 15.1% | 6.62 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.9% | 79.8% | 1.25 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.62 | 36.0% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nashville SC
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Toronto FC · 1-2 (L)
Toronto FC
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-2 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-07-20T00:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-24T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 2-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-06-19T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 2-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-16T00:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 2-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-06-10T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-04-09T00:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 0-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · Nashville SC 3-4 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2021-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · Nashville SC 1-2 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nashville SC win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.