Vatani Stadium · Analysis updated 20:30 UTC
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 1.40 for Kheybar Khorramabad, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Kheybar Khorramabad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kheybar Khorramabad win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nassaji Mazandaran home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kheybar Khorramabad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kheybar Khorramabad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 1.40 for Kheybar Khorramabad, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Nassaji Mazandaran
- 2026-10-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malavan · 1-0 (W)
Kheybar Khorramabad
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepolis FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foolad FC · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kheybar Khorramabad win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.