Vatani Stadium · Analysis updated 12:30 UTC
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 0.82 for Shams Azar Qazvin, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Nassaji Mazandaran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nassaji Mazandaran home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shams Azar Qazvin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nassaji Mazandaran to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 0.82 for Shams Azar Qazvin, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.0%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.08 | 83.6% | 85.7% | 1.17 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.32 | 68.7% | 69.9% | 1.43 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.52 | 60.2% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.35 | 67.0% | 67.7% | 1.48 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.06 | 43.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.0% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.21 | 75.0% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.61 | 56.3% | 55.8% | 1.79 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.74 | 33.0% | 32.3% | 3.10 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 39.8% | 38.8% | 2.58 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.3% | 30.2% | 3.31 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 5.50 | 16.4% | 14.3% | 6.99 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nassaji Mazandaran
- 2026-10-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malavan · 1-0 (W)
Shams Azar Qazvin
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepahan FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Paykan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.