RCAF Old Stadium · Analysis updated 10:19 UTC
National Defense vs Dangkor Senchey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for National Defense and 3.85 for Dangkor Senchey, a combined total of 5.39. That distribution gives Dangkor Senchey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dangkor Senchey win
78.2% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 3.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
National Defense home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dangkor Senchey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 11% / 11% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for National Defense and 3.85 for Dangkor Senchey, a combined 5.39 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.7%
- 1–46.4%
- 1–25.2%
- 2–35.1%
- 1–55.0%
Recent form
National Defense
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-4 (L)
Dangkor Senchey
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kirivong Sok Sen Chey · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs National Defense · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dangkor Senchey win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.