RCAF Old Stadium · Analysis updated 18:00 UTC
National Defense vs Kirivong Sok Sen Chey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for National Defense and 2.36 for Kirivong Sok Sen Chey, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives Kirivong Sok Sen Chey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 2.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
National Defense home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.1%
- 2–15.9%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
National Defense
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-4 (L)
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey
- 2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Angkor Tiger · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Life Sihanoukville · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T09:00:00.000Z · National Defense 3-1 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2026-03-01T08:45:00.000Z · National Defense 2-3 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2026-02-07T11:00:00.000Z · National Defense 0-4 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2025-10-25T08:45:00.000Z · National Defense 2-0 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2025-05-04T08:45:00.000Z · National Defense 3-1 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2025-03-08T11:00:00.000Z · National Defense 0-3 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2025-02-10T11:00:00.000Z · National Defense 1-1 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2024-10-27T08:30:00.000Z · National Defense 7-1 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2024-02-04T08:45:00.000Z · National Defense 0-2 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
- 2023-11-26T11:00:00.000Z · National Defense 4-2 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey (C-League)
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.