RCAF Old Stadium · Analysis updated 10:20 UTC
National Defense vs NagaWorld Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for National Defense and 3.25 for NagaWorld, a combined total of 4.81. That distribution gives NagaWorld the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NagaWorld win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
National Defense home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NagaWorld to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 15% / 14% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for National Defense and 3.25 for NagaWorld, a combined 4.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 76%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.3%
- 1–26.7%
- 1–45.9%
- 2–35.7%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
National Defense
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-4 (L)
NagaWorld
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NagaWorld win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.