Natsional Sofia vs Strumska Slava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Natsional Sofia and 1.65 for Strumska Slava, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Strumska Slava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Strumska Slava win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Natsional Sofia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strumska Slava away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strumska Slava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Natsional Sofia and 1.65 for Strumska Slava, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Natsional Sofia win21%

Draw25%

Strumska Slava win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.9%
1–111.6%
0–210.6%
1–29.6%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Natsional Sofia

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Ihtiman · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-3 (D)

Strumska Slava

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Natsional Sofia 0-3 Strumska Slava (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Oborishte	10	6	4	0	12	22
3	Bansko	10	7	1	2	8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	6	1	3	8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	6	1	3	5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	6	1	4	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	6	0	5	6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	5	0	5	1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	4	0	6	1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	2	6	2	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	3	1	7	-16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	2	1	8	-17	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Strumska Slava win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.