Estádio dos Aflitos · Referee Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz, Brazil · Analysis updated 06:01 UTC
Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Nautico Recife and 0.92 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Nautico Recife the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nautico Recife win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nautico Recife home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nautico Recife to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Nautico Recife and 0.92 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.77 (model 55.0% vs market 51.8%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.77 | 51.8% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +3.2 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 77.5% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +2.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.04 | 45.9% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.4% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.2% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.9% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 48.2% | 45.0% | 2.22 | -3.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.05 | 30.7% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nautico Recife
- 2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuiaba · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-2 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-27T22:00:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 1-0 Athletic Club (Serie B)
- 2024-07-21T22:00:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 2-2 Athletic Club (Serie C)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nautico Recife win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.