Estádio dos Aflitos · Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil · Analysis updated 12:58 UTC
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Nautico Recife and 1.60 for Novorizontino, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Novorizontino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novorizontino win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nautico Recife home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novorizontino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novorizontino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Nautico Recife and 1.60 for Novorizontino, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Nautico Recife
- 2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuiaba · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-2 (L)
Novorizontino
- 2026-10-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Goias · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceara · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novorizontino win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.