Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 3019:30

3 – 1

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Estádio dos Aflitos · Referee Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil · Analysis updated 10:59 UTC

Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nautico Recife and 1.25 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sport Recife the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nautico Recife home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Recife away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nautico Recife win36%

Draw27%

Sport Recife win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–110.5%
1–010.3%
0–08.4%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Nautico Recife

2026-10-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 3-1 (W)

Sport Recife

2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T19:10:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 3-1 Sport Recife (Serie B)
2026-05-30T23:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 0-2 Sport Recife (Serie B)
2026-03-08T21:00:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 0-3 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2026-03-01T21:00:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 3-3 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2026-01-18T21:00:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 4-0 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2025-02-15T19:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 2-1 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2024-04-06T19:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 0-0 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2024-03-30T19:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 0-2 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)
2024-03-21T00:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 2-2 Sport Recife (Copa do Nordeste)
2024-02-24T19:30:00.000Z · Nautico Recife 1-0 Sport Recife (Pernambucano - 1)

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	14	62
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	35	16	13	6	12	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	6	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	4	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	9	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	14	12	9	9	54
9	Operario-PR	35	14	9	12	-1	51
10	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	13	10	12	10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	10	14	11	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	-12	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	-7	32
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	-55	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.