· Analysis updated 21:37 UTC
Nautico U20 vs Academica Vitoria U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nautico U20 and 1.58 for Academica Vitoria U20, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Academica Vitoria U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Academica Vitoria U20 win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nautico U20 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Academica Vitoria U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 23% / 25% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Nautico U20 and 1.58 for Academica Vitoria U20, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Nautico U20
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany U20 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Serrano PE U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Vitoria U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs America PE U20 · 3-1 (W)
Academica Vitoria U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nautico U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Serrano PE U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs America PE U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pernambucano - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 20 |
| 1 | Sport Recife U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 18 |
| 2 | Retrô U20 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| 2 | Nautico U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Ipojuca U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | CA Porto U20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | America PE U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Petrolina U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio U20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 6 | Serrano PE U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ibis Sport Club U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | Jaguar U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 8 | Atletico PE U20 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -24 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany U20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -33 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Torres U20 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Academica Vitoria U20 win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.