· Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Navad Urmia vs Fard Alborz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Navad Urmia and 0.62 for Fard Alborz, a combined total of 1.17. That distribution gives Fard Alborz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 31%, with the draw at 42%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 12% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 31%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 31% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Navad Urmia home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 26% / 42% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Navad Urmia and 0.62 for Fard Alborz, a combined 1.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 12% and both teams to score at 20%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 31%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
58%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–030.9%
- 0–119.3%
- 1–017.0%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Navad Urmia
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Kerman · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saipa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-21T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 0-2 (L)
Fard Alborz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 12%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.