· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Naval 1893 vs Mortágua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Naval 1893 and 1.58 for Mortágua, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Mortágua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mortágua win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naval 1893 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mortágua away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mortágua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Naval 1893 and 1.58 for Mortágua, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Naval 1893
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Nogueirense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 4-1 (W)
Mortágua
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Naval 1893 2-0 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Naval 1893 2-2 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mortágua win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.