· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Naval Reinosa vs Atlético Albericia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Naval Reinosa and 1.80 for Atlético Albericia, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Atlético Albericia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Albericia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Albericia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Naval Reinosa and 1.80 for Atlético Albericia, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
Naval Reinosa
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 0-0 (D)
Atlético Albericia
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Solares · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.