Navalcarnero vs Conquense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Navalcarnero and 1.50 for Conquense, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Conquense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Navalcarnero home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Conquense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Conquense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.50 for Conquense, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Navalcarnero win34%

Draw25%

Conquense win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–18.9%
1–28.8%
1–07.9%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Navalcarnero

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)

Conquense

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Navalcarnero 2-0 Conquense (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
2025-10-19T10:00:00.000Z · Navalcarnero 1-1 Conquense (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
2025-02-09T11:00:00.000Z · Navalcarnero 2-0 Conquense (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
2024-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Navalcarnero 0-1 Conquense (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.