Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Navalcarnero and 0.95 for Fuenlabrada, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Navalcarnero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Navalcarnero win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Navalcarnero home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fuenlabrada away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Navalcarnero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Navalcarnero and 0.95 for Fuenlabrada, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Navalcarnero win47%

Draw27%

Fuenlabrada win26%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.4%
1–112.7%
0–09.5%
2–09.3%
0–19.1%

Recent form

Navalcarnero

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)

Fuenlabrada

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	A Madrid III	7	4	2	1	3	14
2	Real Valladolid II	7	4	1	2	8	13
3	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
5	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
6	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	2	3	2	1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Albacete II	7	1	3	3	-12	6
14	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	7	0	4	3	-5	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Navalcarnero win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.