· Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Navalcarnero and 1.37 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Navalcarnero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Navalcarnero win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Navalcarnero home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Betis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Navalcarnero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.37 for Real Betis, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Navalcarnero
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa del Rey table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pinatar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 2 | Anaitasuna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Lebrijana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Prat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Atletico Calatayud | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auriense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Alcazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hortaleza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Ribadesella CF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Maracena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Tavernes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Talayuela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Güímar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Noja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Baztán | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | CD San Jose | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | San Rafael | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Ceuta 6 de Junio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tedeón | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Atlético Melilla | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Navalcarnero win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.