Markaziy Stadium · Referee D. Rahmonov · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Navbahor and 1.15 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Navbahor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Navbahor win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Navbahor home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Samarqand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Navbahor
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Samarqand · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxoro · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mash'al · 2-0 (W)
Dinamo Samarqand
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T14:15:00.000Z · Navbahor 2-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-08-02T16:15:00.000Z · Navbahor 2-2 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-03-09T14:30:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Cup)
- 2024-03-01T13:30:00.000Z · Navbahor 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 2-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Cup)
- 2019-10-01T14:15:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -33 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Navbahor win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.