Navbahor vs Nasaf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Navbahor and 1.30 for Nasaf, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Navbahor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Navbahor home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nasaf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Navbahor win44%

Draw25%

Nasaf win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.2%
1–08.8%
1–27.4%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Navbahor

2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Samarqand · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxoro · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mash'al · 2-0 (W)

Nasaf

2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Nasaf (Cup)
2026-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Nasaf (Super League)
2026-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-0 Nasaf (Super League)
2025-10-30T13:30:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-0 Nasaf (Super League)
2025-06-15T15:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf (Super League)
2024-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf (Super League)
2024-06-30T15:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 2-3 Nasaf (Super League)
2024-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 1-0 Nasaf (Cup)
2023-10-30T13:15:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf (Super League)
2023-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Navbahor 0-0 Nasaf (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	23	16	4	3	33	52
2	Pakhtakor	22	14	7	1	19	49
3	Navbahor	22	13	5	4	18	44
4	Olmaliq	22	10	5	7	2	35
5	Lokomotiv	22	10	5	7	8	35
6	Nasaf	22	9	7	6	12	34
7	Buxoro	22	10	4	8	3	34
8	Andijan	22	9	3	10	-1	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	-1	30
10	Qizilqum	22	9	2	11	-7	29
11	Sogdiana	22	8	4	10	-5	28
12	Surkhon	22	7	5	10	-9	26
13	Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	-14	22
14	Xorazm	23	5	7	11	-14	22
15	Kokand-1912	22	4	8	10	-11	20
16	Mash'al	22	1	1	20	-33	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.