· Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Náxara vs Peña Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Náxara and 1.45 for Peña Sport, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Peña Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Náxara home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Peña Sport away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peña Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Náxara and 1.45 for Peña Sport, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Náxara
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbastro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
Peña Sport
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Olot | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Manresa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Osasuna II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Girona II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Reddis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Utebo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Náxara | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.