Gozo Stadium · Referee J. Scerri · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
Naxxar Lions vs Floriana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Naxxar Lions and 1.33 for Floriana, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naxxar Lions home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Floriana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Naxxar Lions
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Lucía · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hotspurs · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sirens · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zebbug Rangers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietà Hotspurs · 2-3 (L)
Floriana
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Birkirkara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T12:30:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-1 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2026-01-17T13:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 1-3 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2025-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 1-3 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2025-01-05T12:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-4 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2024-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-2 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2024-03-22T18:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 3-9 Floriana (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-3 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2024-01-13T13:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-2 Floriana (FA Trophy)
- 2023-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 1-1 Floriana (Premier League)
- 2018-03-17T13:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-2 Floriana (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Birkirkara | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Mosta | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Balzan FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.