· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Naxxar Lions vs Zebbug Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Naxxar Lions and 1.01 for Zebbug Rangers, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Naxxar Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Naxxar Lions win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naxxar Lions home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zebbug Rangers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–17.8%
- 3–07.8%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Naxxar Lions
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsaxlokk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gzira United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 1-1 (D)
Zebbug Rangers
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarxien Rainbows · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swieqi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naxxar Lions · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fgura United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 3-1 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2021-02-21T17:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 4-1 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2020-10-29T20:15:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-3 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2020-02-17T18:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-2 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2019-09-28T15:15:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 0-0 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2019-03-01T19:15:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 1-5 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2018-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 1-1 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2017-02-25T13:00:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 4-2 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
- 2016-10-28T17:30:00.000Z · Naxxar Lions 3-1 Zebbug Rangers (Challenge League)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Naxxar Lions win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.