· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Nazarenos vs Sertanense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nazarenos and 1.18 for Sertanense, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Nazarenos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nazarenos home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sertanense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nazarenos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Nazarenos and 1.18 for Sertanense, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Nazarenos
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Sertanense
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.