Ammochostos Stadium · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Nea Salamis vs ASIL Lysi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Nea Salamis and 1.03 for ASIL Lysi, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Nea Salamis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nea Salamis win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nea Salamis home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ASIL Lysi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nea Salamis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Nea Salamis and 1.03 for ASIL Lysi, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Nea Salamis
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
ASIL Lysi
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akritas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayia Napa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MEAP Nisou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Enosis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Doxa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | APEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | PAEEK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Polemidion | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Spartakos Kitiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Ermis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Digenis Morphou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | MEAP Nisou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Ayia Napa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Halkanoras | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nea Salamis win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.