· Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Nebitci vs Arkadag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.49 expected goals for Nebitci and 3.36 for Arkadag, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Arkadag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arkadag win
89.9% probability
Expected goals
0.49 – 3.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nebitci home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkadag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 3% / 7% / 90% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.49 goals for Nebitci and 3.36 for Arkadag, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
10%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
97%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–313.5%
- 0–212.0%
- 0–411.3%
- 0–57.6%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Nebitci
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 2-2 (D)
Arkadag
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arkadag win, at 89.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.