· Analysis updated 13:07 UTC
Nebitci vs Aşgabat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Nebitci and 1.22 for Aşgabat, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Nebitci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nebitci win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nebitci home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aşgabat away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nebitci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Nebitci and 1.22 for Aşgabat, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Nebitci
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 2-2 (D)
Aşgabat
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merw · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nebitci · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nebitci win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.