NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.85 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AZ Alkmaar win

49.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

NEC Nijmegen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

NEC Nijmegen win28%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.4%
0–17.5%
0–27.0%
2–16.9%

Recent form

NEC Nijmegen

2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)

AZ Alkmaar

2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-5 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
2026-01-31T15:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2025-09-28T10:15:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2025-03-29T20:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2024-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2024-04-28T10:15:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2023-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2023-05-21T12:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2022-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2022-03-06T15:45:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	7	3	0	21	24
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	16	21
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	6	2	2	15	20
4	Twente	10	6	2	2	9	20
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	2	2	8	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	5	3	2	0	18
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	10	4	3	3	3	15
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	NEC Nijmegen	10	2	5	3	-1	11
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.