NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.58 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Excelsior win

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 2.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

NEC Nijmegen home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

NEC Nijmegen win16%

Draw17%

Excelsior win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–29.1%
1–37.8%
0–27.4%
1–17.1%
0–36.4%

Recent form

NEC Nijmegen

2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)

Excelsior

2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2026-04-04T19:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2025-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2024-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-08-13T10:15:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-4 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-02-19T19:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2022-10-08T19:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2021-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Excelsior (Eerste Divisie)
2021-01-08T17:45:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 3-2 Excelsior (Eerste Divisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.