Goffertstadion · Referee Allard Lindhout, Netherlands · Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.20 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Feyenoord win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEC Nijmegen home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Feyenoord away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-23T13:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 4-2 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-01T20:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2024-09-28T16:45:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-12T12:30:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-1 Feyenoord (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-01-14T15:45:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 4-4 Feyenoord (KNVB Beker)
- 2023-01-25T20:00:00.000Z · NEC Nijmegen 0-2 Feyenoord (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.