Stadion de Goffert · Referee Martijn Vos, Netherlands · Analysis updated 08:39 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.20 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NEC Nijmegen win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NEC Nijmegen home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GO Ahead Eagles away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC Nijmegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.20 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 43.5% vs market 31.0%, edge +12.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.0% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +12.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.7% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.1% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.6% | 75.7% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 48.0% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 69.0% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -12.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
GO Ahead Eagles
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEC Nijmegen win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.